18 February, 2012

Vancouver House Prices


A publication from June 2011 by the Bank of Canada illustrates how nominal house prices in Vancouver have significantly increased in recent years. The diagram below is based on data shown in that publication:

MLS average resale prices. Historical. Thousand Canadian $. Latest date: April 2011
 
The following diagram compares real house prices (i.e. house prices independent of inflation), mortgage interest rates and the cost of carrying the mortgage (i.e. the annual amount of interest to pay for a mortgage at the shown rate for a house at the shown price):

Jan 1992 = 100
 
So, while real house prices in Vancouver have kept increasing, mortgage interest rates have kept decreasing at almost the same rate. As a result, the cost of carrying a mortgage has increased significantly less than the house prices themselves, making it possible for people to pay for living in expensive houses. Of course, this does not reflect on the time it will take a family to pay off the mortgage for a house. Even considering the increase in real family incomes, assuming historical amortization rates, for houses bought in 2011 this will still be more than twice as long as for houses bought in 2000.

Data Sources: 1) House Prices, Bank of Canada publication, Chart 16. 2) Inflation data, Statistics Canada, Table 326-0020. 3) Mortgage interest, Bank of Canada publication, series V122497.